Can experts help us predict the future? 🔮


In this issue: Ignoring the noise, getting to the bottom of gamification and turning to the Oracle of Omaha.

"Helping parents raise money-smart kids."

​​3 Ideas to Share & Save
(Click the link above 👆 to read this week's edition on the web.)

Hello, friends!

I ran the Long Beach Marathon last weekend. Thankfully, the weather cooperated, and we enjoyed cloud cover the whole way.

In other good news, I qualified for Boston 2026! While I'm not guaranteed a spot, I'm excited for the chance to take another crack at a course I first ran in April. (If I'm being honest, the course ran me more than I ran it. 😮‍💨)

For more on that experience, let's dive into this week's "3 Ideas to Share & Save."

— 1 —

Ignore the Noise: My first Boston Marathon was a tough one thirteen good miles followed by thirteen not-so-good miles of muscle cramping. In the end, I was just happy to finish. But despite my feeling like the race hit back, my predicament was nothing compared to K.V. Switzer's in 1966. Infamously, organizer Jock Semple ran onto the course screaming, "Get the hell out of my race!" Semple even grabbed at Switzer's number and tried to take her down until a fellow runner body-checked him to the curb.

Switzer was the first woman to register for and finish the Boston Marathon. She signed up as K.V. instead of as Katherine because Semple wasn't the only one who didn't want a woman running his beloved race. Most running experts thought women too delicate for such a grueling test. To paraphrase David Senra, host of the Founders podcast, experts often don't know sh*t.

Yet "experts" are everywhere. They dominate the media. They predict the weather — and often poorly. They anticipate the winner of the big game — and are wrong half the time. They offer investing advice — and underperform the market. They're typically being paid good money to fill time. So in that sense, it's hard to fault them. I can only fault myself when I listen. And while experts help us make sense of what has happened, most are notoriously bad at predicting an uncertain future.

Fortunately, Switzer ignored the noise of experts who said women couldn't run long distances. Instead, she focused on what mattered — her love of running.

Money empowerment also comes from focusing on what matters and ignoring the noise. It involves implementing key behaviors to reap the greatest financial rewards. And just what are those key behaviors? I shared them with you here.

— 2 —

On Gamification: Years ago, I took an excellent Coursera gamification course with Kevin Werbach of The Wharton School. Gamification can undoubtedly drive short-term engagement; however, I remain skeptical of its long-term benefits. Points, prizes and leaderboards are extrinsic rewards that are certainly short-term motivators. But are they long-term behavior builders? 🤔

(One goal of this newsletter is to promote better behaviors. The "financial illiteracy epidemic" doesn't exist because the knowledge hasn't been available. It exists because building good behaviors in a consumer culture is hard.)

We can, of course, sprinkle games into our money-smart journeys to promote the all-important conversations we want to have with our kids. For example, in his book The Opposite of Spoiled, Art of Allowance Podcast guest Ron Lieber explains a technique he learned to help kids navigate the maze of advertising.

He writes that when you and your family see an ad — TV, billboard, even sky-written — make it a game to see who can be the first to spot one or all of these strategies:

  • Subliminal advertising (What's unsaid?)
  • "White lies" or "bending the proof" (e.g., 9 out of 10 monkeys choose this vine!)
  • False urgency (Hurry! Before we run out of Stuff!)
  • "Buy One Get One Free" sales (or other promotions enticing you to buy)

While I recognize the irony of promoting one of my picture books in this space, Joe the Monkey and Friends Learn About Spending Smart introduces preschoolers and grade schoolers to these persuasive techniques in a fun, engaging way. (Did you get the "Stuff" reference above?) You can even download a free reading guide filled with activities that complement the one Ron describes.

For more ideas to drive you child's ad awareness, read this short essay. Or tune in to my podcast discussion with media literacy advocate Erin McNeill.

— 3 —

Weekly Wisdom: To follow up on the first idea I shared with you this week, let's turn to the Oracle of Omaha.

"As Warren Buffett, the billionaire financier, put it, the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good."
— Gerd Gigerenzer, Gut Feelings

As always, enjoy the journey!

John,
Chief Mammal

P.S. Please consult with a financial or investment professional before making any decisions that might affect your financial well-being.

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3 Ideas to Share & Save

Every Monday I share 3 ideas to help you and your family on the money-smart journey. I created "The Money Mammals" for kids and wrote The Art of Allowance book for parents like you. Won't you join me on the money-smart journey?

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